⚠ SAMPLE / SPECIMEN — Fictional property. Illustrative of Pythia output only.
DEAL DECISION REPORT

168 Fiesta Way, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301

Folio · 5042-05-04-0180Asking · $680,000Use · buy holdIssued · 1/14/2026
NEGOTIATEconfidence · 74/100
"Model-assisted evidence supports moving forward only with structural price and insurance concessions."
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The subject sits inside a stable but flood-exposed Fort Lauderdale corridor. Model-assisted AVM bands indicate the asking price is at the upper edge of defensible range, while insurance economics and title-chain gaps materially compress buy-and-hold yield. A verdict of NEGOTIATE is warranted, anchored at AVM low plus documented insurance delta. Do not proceed without USPAP-grade appraisal and title cure.

AVM EVIDENCE RANGE
Low
$612,000
Median
$648,000
High
$684,000
confidence · 68/100
Model-assisted range from location typology, size class, and ZIP median trajectory. Not an appraisal.
COMPARABLES ANALYSIS

Within 1-mile radius, waterfront and non-waterfront trade divergence is severe. Model-assisted evidence supports negotiating below list; certified comps must be pulled from MLS at contract stage.

VERIFICATION REQUIRED
  • Sold comps last 180 days, same submarket
  • Waterfront vs non-waterfront segregation
  • Days on market distribution
  • Original list vs closed spread
RISK STACK
flood
moderateconf 62
Address geometry likely within FEMA AE band. Base flood elevation impacts insurance and financing.
verify: Pull official FIRM panel + elevation certificate.
insurance
highconf 70
Florida coastal premiums have re-priced sharply post-2022. Estimated annual premium $8.4k–$14.2k materially compresses yield.
verify: Obtain 3 binding quotes prior to inspection contingency expiry.
permits
lowconf 65
ZIP-level permit activity above trailing 12-month median; suggests active neighborhood investment.
verify: Pull building department history for the subject folio.
title
moderateconf 55
Public record chain shows a gap between 1998–2004 that should be cured.
verify: Order full title search + owner affidavit.
condition
unknownconf 0
No inspection data available in intake.
verify: Four-point + wind mitigation inspection prior to close.
RED FLAGS
  • Projected annual insurance premium exceeds 12% of gross annual rent at market rate.
  • Title chain contains an unaddressed period between 1998 and 2004.
  • Days on market appear to exceed ZIP median — signal of overpricing or condition friction.
NEGOTIATION LEVERS
  • Insurance premium delta above ZIP median
  • Title cure cost estimate
  • Days-on-market vs ZIP median (overpricing signal)
  • Deferred maintenance suggested by vintage
SOURCE LEDGER
FieldValueSourceConf.Missingness
Asking price$680,000user_input100none
Address geometry168 Fiesta Way, 33301user_input100none
Year built1962 (typical vintage)model_hypothesis55partial
Flood zoneAE band (verify)model_hypothesis60partial
Sold comparablesrange onlymodel_hypothesis50partial
Owner entityunknownnot_available0full
Title chain 1998–2004gap flaggedmodel_hypothesis40partial
Insurance premium range$8,400–$14,200model_hypothesis50partial
OFFER CHECKLIST
  • Anchor initial offer at AVM low ($612k) with insurance escrow adjustment.
  • Require seller-paid four-point + wind mitigation inspection credit.
  • Insert 21-day inspection contingency and 30-day financing contingency.
  • Require full title commitment and owner affidavit before earnest release.
VERIFICATION QUESTIONS
  • ?What is the FIRM panel effective date and BFE for this parcel?
  • ?What is the actual annual premium quoted by 3 independent carriers?
  • ?What sold comparables exist within 0.5 miles in the trailing 180 days?
  • ?Is the owner an LLC, individual, or estate?
Not an appraisal. Not investment advice. Model-assisted due diligence.
Not an appraisal. Not investment advice. Model-assisted due diligence.